Don’t worry – it’s not just you.
Of all the golf stats, putting stats tend to have the most volatility (variance) from round to round for most golfers. The reason for that is because of how difficult it is to plan & execute a great shot in golf, and how much that matters for putting versus other shots…
Intentions & outcomes matter
For makeable putts our intention is to put the ball in the hole, and we have a reasonable chance of doing. From guaranteed tap-ins hanging over the hole which we always make, to putts around five feet or so where things start to get fifty-fifty, out to twenty or thirty feet where we still occasionally make a putt – every putt has a chance to go in.
For chips and approaches, our intention is (usually) to move the ball to a spot on the green close to the hole, and the outcome is almost never to hit the ball in the hole.
Most of your putts in a round will be inside twenty feet. And from twenty feet and in, even weaker putters will drop around one in ten1 of their putts. Contrast that with other shots – chips, and approaches – that collectively have a tiny chance, well below 1% of holing out.
All misses are not created equal
When a makeable putt fails to drop, you definitely feel like you “missed”… But when your approach shot lands right next to the pin – also failing to drop – you don’t feel it’s a miss, right?
To understand this, think a little about how many strokes you need to finish the hole after the current shot is finished. (Knowledge of how Strokes Gained works2 can help to understand this).
When lining up a putt, the outcome will either be in the hole, or missed. If you make the putt, then you need zero additional strokes to finish the hole, while if you miss, you need at least one additional stroke.
Contrast that with an approach shot from 100 yards where you know it’s not going in the hole… it’s just not (sit down, Tiger) – a really good approach shot always has at least one additional stroke.
How big is a “miss”?
To miss a 5 foot putt, you only need your face angle (or aim) to be out by two degrees3 So for five foot putts, a two degree errors costs you at least one stroke.
Conversely, think about hitting your 100 yard wedge – realistically a great shot is one that lands five feet from the pin – in this instance, a two degree miss on aim or face angle results in a shot that finishes approximately 2-2.5 yards further away – so your putt will likely be approximately 12 feet, instead of 5 feet
What’s the difference in putts needed to finish the hole from 5 feet versus 12 feet? For a pro it would be about 1.2 putts versus 1.7 putts- he’s lost half a stroke. For a bogey golfer, it would be around 1.5 versus 1.85 – a difference of around a third of a stroke.
Missing a putt by two degrees can easily cost you a whole stroke – whereas missing a 100 yard wedge by two degrees will often cost you less than half a shot.
But… most approach shots are longer than 100 yards, and you rarely planned and aimed well enough to hit to 5 feet, often a 2% difference in face angle is the difference between a putt from 15 feet and a putt from 30 feet. And the difference in expected number of putts from those two distances? Smaller – for pros less about a third of a stroke, and for a bogey golfer, around a quarter.
Why does this make my putting stats so random?
Because golf – no matter how good you are – involves a huge amount of luck (AKA “variance”). You’re going to misjudge things, you’re going to have a face open or closed by a degree or two, the ball is going to bounce left or right on a piece of debris and miss the hole, or hit the hole.
The key difference is that when putting those same little bits of variance (luck) can easily blow up your score (or reduce it) by one stroke per incident of variance. But when hitting approach shots (and tee shots, and chips) those little bits of variance – of the same magnitude – usually only change your score by a third, quarter of a stroke or less.
If you have half a dozen instances of “bad luck” on approach shots – missing by 2%, then your score will likely inflate by less than two strokes. But if you have the same instances of “bad luck” on putting, it would inflate by six strokes – three times as much.
That’s why your putting stats are so volatile – most of the putts you play either fall in the hole, or just miss. There’s a lot of opportunity for lady luck to bless you, or kick you in the nethers.
On drives and approach shots you do still have the opportunity for a lot of variance (consider the difference between centre fairway or OB on a drive, or knocking one stiff from 150 yards versus dunking it in the water short of the green) on individual shots – but most of the time you only experience that kind of variance on a handful of shots per round. Contrast that with the putter, you’ll likely have 17-18 putts within 20 feet and experience high variance on lots of them, and often will have yet another putt where high variance can kick in.